With less than two months to go before Election Day, all eyes are on not just the presidential race between GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump and his Democrat opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, but on the key Senate races across the country that will determine who controls the upper chamber in 2025 regardless of which side wins the presidency.
As we previously reported, Republican Senate nominee Dave McCormick is giving Democrat Sen. Bob Casey nightmares in Pennsylvania. Further, there’s a strong possibility West Virginia will flip red thanks to Gov. Jim Justice’s Senate candidacy and Sen. Joe Manchin’s retirement.
But it is in the great state of Montana that Republicans are seeing their second-best (next to WV) hope for a crucial seat flip thanks to the floundering candidacy of Democrat Sen. Jon Tester.
READ MORE–>> Hoo Boy: Big Trouble for Jon Tester in Montana
Tester has been in the Senate since 2007 in a state that typically goes red in presidential contests but which more often than not elects and reelects Democrats to the U.S. Senate (with exceptions).
But Tester is currently in the battle of his political life thanks to Trump-endorsed GOP Senate nominee Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL and veteran of Afghanistan and Iraq. In early September, the race was moved from “toss-up” to “leans Republican” according to an analysis from the Cook Political Report, which among other things took into account a wave of summer polling trends that looked really good for Sheehy.
On Tuesday, Tester’s reelection bid was hit with even more bad news thanks to the Montana Supreme Court in a case brought by the state Democrat Party involving whether or not the Green Party Senate candidate, Robert Barb, could remain on the ballot:
The Montana Supreme Court on Tuesday affirmed a lower court ruling that allowed the state’s Green Party Senate candidate to remain on the ballot in November, a blow to Democrats’ efforts to prevent what they expect could be a spoiler in the close race between incumbent Sen. Jon Tester (D) and his Republican challenger, Tim Sheehy.
The Montana Democratic Party filed a lawsuit in late August contesting the nomination of Green Party candidate Robert Barb, who placed second in the state’s Green Party primary but replaced the top vote-getter after the winner dropped out of the race.
[…]
In its ruling Tuesday, the state’s Supreme Court determined the Democrats “failed to demonstrate that it is likely that the Montana Green Party violated its party ‘rules’ when its state central committee appointed Barb to fill the vacancy.”
The full ruling can be read here.
As RedState documented at the time, an AARP poll taken in late August by a bipartisan polling firm showed Tester down eight points to Sheehy in a four-way race (including the Libertarian and Green Party candidates) and down six points in a two-way race.
So if current polling patterns hold, it’s not just a matter of Tester losing to Sheehy in November – but by how much.
This one is another big one to keep an eye on. As always, stay tuned.
Flashback: Jon Tester’s Defense of Joe Biden’s Cognitive Abilities Was Not the Win He Thought It Was
