Nvidia’s and Palantir’s stocks have more than doubled this year, but Wall Street is bullish on one and bearish on the other.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR 1.96%) and Nvidia (NVDA 1.69%) are two of the hottest artificial intelligence (AI) stocks on Wall Street. In fact, with year-to-date returns of 132% and 150%, respectively, they rank among the five best-performing components of the S&P 500.
However, Wall Street expects the stocks to move in opposite directions over the next year.
- Among the 23 analysts who follow Palantir, the median price target is $27 per share, which implies 32% downside from its current share price of $40.
- Among the 65 analysts following Nvidia, the median price target is $150 per share, which implies 20% upside from the current share price of $125.
Furthermore, Palantir is the most overvalued stock in the S&P 500 based on the difference between its current price and median price target. Meanwhile, according to FactSet Research, Nvidia ranks among the most highly recommended stocks in the S&P 500 in terms of its percentage of buy ratings.
Suffice it to say Wall Street is overwhelmingly bearish on Palantir but very bullish on Nvidia. Here are the most important details for investors.
Palantir Technologies: 32% downside implied by the median price target
Palantir has deep roots in counterterrorism and clandestine military operations. The company spent its earliest days building analytics software for federal agencies in the U.S. intelligence community. But it has since expanded its customer base to include international governments and commercial organizations.
Palantir’s data operations platforms, Foundry and Gotham, let customers incorporate data and machine learning models into analytical applications that improve decision-making. And its AI platform, AIP, allows commercial and government clients to use large language models and generative AI within Foundry and Gotham.
Some analysts have lauded Palantir for its sophisticated technology. For instance, it was a top-ranked vendor in Dresner Advisory Services’ 2024 market study on artificial intelligence, data science, and machine learning platforms. Forrester Research recently recognized its leadership in AI and machine learning platforms.
Other analysts are less impressed. Gartner scored Palantir below a dozen other vendors in data integration capabilities, citing overreliance on consulting services. That means some clients find Palantir’s software so complex that they struggle to use it independently. Gartner also omitted Palantir in its latest report on data science and machine learning platforms.
Palantir reported second-quarter financial results that exceeded expectations on the top and bottom lines. Revenue rose 27% to $678 million, the fifth consecutive acceleration in sales growth. Meanwhile, non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net income increased by 80% to $0.09 per diluted share. And management provided better-than-expected guidance for the third quarter.
The only real problem with the stock is its valuation. Wall Street expects Palantir’s earnings to increase at 21% annually through 2026. That estimate makes the present valuation of 125 times adjusted earnings look absurdly expensive. As mentioned, Palantir is the most overvalued stock in the S&P 500 based on the discrepancy between its median price target and current price.
So, either Wall Street analysts have grossly underestimated Palantir, or shares are headed for a significant correction in the future. Either way, investors can save themselves a lot of trouble by avoiding Palantir stock right now, and shareholders should at least consider trimming their positions.
Nvidia: 20% upside implied by the median price target
Nvidia is best known for inventing graphics processing units (GPUs), semiconductors that perform technical calculations much faster and more efficiently than central processing units (CPUs). Nvidia GPUs are the gold standard in accelerating computationally demanding data center workloads like AI training and inference.
Last year, Nvidia accounted for 98% of data center GPU shipments, and the company currently has more than 80% market share in AI chips, according to analysts. That dominance is partially due to superior hardware. But it’s also a product of the company’s broad portfolio that spans adjacent hardware, like networking gear and server processors, as well as software and cloud infrastructure services designed to support AI workflows.
To quote Zoe Thomas of The Wall Street Journal, “Nvidia already dominates the market for chips powering the artificial intelligence boom. Now the company is playing a growing role in designing AI data centers.” That affords Nvidia an important competitive advantage. The company not only monetizes AI in multiple ways but can also provide customers with a complete AI system rather than individual components.
Nvidia reported strong financial results in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 (ended July 2024). Revenue increased 122% to $30 billion on strong demand for AI hardware and software. Meanwhile, non-GAAP earnings increased 152% to $0.68 per diluted share. Only one metric was moderately disappointing. Gross profit margin declined 3.3 percentage points sequentially, which may signal a slight weakening in pricing power due to increased competition from other chipmakers.
Going forward, Wall Street expects Nvidia’s adjusted earnings to increase at 35% annually through fiscal 2027 (ends January 2027). Compared to that estimate, the current valuation of 56.6 times adjusted earnings is fair and certainly much more reasonable than Palantir’s price tag. Patient investors should consider buying a small position in Nvidia stock today and building a slightly larger position if shares fall 10% to 20% in the future.
Trevor Jennewine has positions in Nvidia and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Palantir Technologies. The Motley Fool recommends Gartner. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
